The Presidential Polls From Harry Truman Time to John McCain and Barack Obama Our Time
The Presidential Polls From Harry Truman Time to John McCain and Barack Obama Our Time First of all, there was only the Gallup poll in 1948. Now there are at least 15 polls which all say just about the same thing. Also, Gallup did not think he needed to do any polls in the last two weeks of the '48 campaign as the two previous campaigns showed no shift in that period. So, his poll two weeks before the election might have been accurate but he missed a big swing at the end. This year, there are too many polls done every day at the national level to miss a big change like that. Plus all the state polls which give a more accurate picture of the electoral tide. I look at this more like 1980. The national popular polls were showing a tight race before Reagan pulled ahead at the end. However, my roommate used to bring home the Evans/Novak report from work and their electoral map analysis was showing a Reagan landslide for a long time before the popular polls started showing it. Other acco...