The Presidential Polls From Harry Truman Time to John McCain and Barack Obama Our Time

The Presidential Polls From Harry Truman Time to John McCain and Barack Obama Our Time


First of all, there was only the Gallup poll in 1948. Now there are at least 15 polls which all say just about the same thing.

Also, Gallup did not think he needed to do any polls in the last two weeks of the '48 campaign as the two previous campaigns showed no shift in that period. So, his poll two weeks before the election might have been accurate but he missed a big swing at the end.

This year, there are too many polls done every day at the national level to miss a big change like that. Plus all the state polls which give a more accurate picture of the electoral tide.

I look at this more like 1980. The national popular polls were showing a tight race before Reagan pulled ahead at the end. However, my roommate used to bring home the Evans/Novak report from work and their electoral map analysis was showing a Reagan landslide for a long time before the popular polls started showing it.

Other account:

Well, no. First, polls were much sparser at that time. You barely had a poll a week or so. Second, you COULD compare it, yes. McCain is at a worse situation than Truman was at the same time, but not much. I think Truman was down 5 at this time that year and that was about when the last poll was taken. McCain is down about 9 points.
But the big difference is that Truman was not down because the public was against him, but because the Democratic Party was split in the main party and the so-called "Dixiecrats" in the South who were polling at almost 10% during some times in summer. Truman picked up support not mainly from Dewey, but from the collapsing Dixiecrats and from undecided voters. McCain has not such a source of support, even if he would get the lions share of undecided voters, Obama is over 50.

And lastly, the science of polling was not so sophisticated as it is today. Today pollsters can weight their samples to the party registration numbers from the state board of elections updated daily. They have robocalls, random number dialing, likely voter models, can anaylze the 2004 Exit Polls. At that time, barely 1/3 of the population had TELEPHONES, when I´m right. You can´t compare that.

Here´s a source for the Gallup polls in that election. I think Gallup was the only pollster then, maybe except one or two others that did not put out polls regularly.

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/orig...


Information Police: I wouldn´t compare that with 1980. First, they had a sizeable third party with Independent Candidate Anderson, who polled at 20% for two months or so.
Second, Carters 30% lead collapsed in MARCH. Since July, they were deadlocked. Reagan pulled away in the last days, but from a tie, not from behind. This reminds me more of Roosevelt vs. Wendell Wilkie. Roosevelt ahead by 5-10% for most of the cycle, Wilkie closing in to 5% in October (we saw that a week ago), then losing support again (which is what we have now.)